Seventh Day Adventure: Week 15 Ian Boyd 11 Dec 2020, 01:50 pm
We’re getting close to Heisman Trophy finalist season, championship collects, and playoff picks. Week 14 fetched a little less COVID intrigue to the season, other than giving us the BYU vs. Coastal Carolina game, and now we wait to see how the season resolves and what sort of postseason the athletic is able to build.
BYU vs. Coastal Carolina was undoubtedly the large-scale narration of the weekend. The Cougars took the game against the undefeated Chanticleers on short notice and started a sort of Group of 5 championship exhibition of sorts. Shockingly, BYU got a lot more than I think they agreement for and went down 22 -1 7. A fascinating matchup in video games was between BYU’s star nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, a 6-foot-4 and 321 -pound behemoth, against Coastal Carolina’s center Sam Thompson, who’s 5-foot-9 and 290 pounds. With onus of double units, alternative planneds, traps, and guides desegregated in, the Chanticleers came out OK in that matchup. They also eschewed BYU’s potent offense, led by Zach Wilson, by holding the clod for 37:51 of activity clock and turning over the Panthers with an interception, a fumble, and a turnover on downs. It was a fun game and a huge win for the undefeated Sun Belt team — what a season it has been for that conference.
Elsewhere, Alabama obliterated LSU; Iowa State and Oklahoma locked up places in the Big 12 Championship Game; and Ohio State facilitated their skimpy resume by lashing Michigan State 52 -1 2. This week we’ll get some matchups that should make for an enjoyable Saturday, including some immense conflict combats, but The Game has been canceled due to COVID publications at Michigan. That will cause interesting questions about whether Ohio State can play in the Big Ten Championship Game or be selected for the playoff.
All meters are listed as Eastern.
Georgia( -1 3) at Missouri — Saturday, 12 p.m.( SECN)
Overall Georgia( 6-2) Missouri( 5-3)
F /+ 9 60
FEI 8 46
When Georgia has the ball Offense Security
FEI 23 69
SP+ 34 37
IsoPPP+ 60 43
Rushing success rates 15 107
Passing success rates 94 39
When Missouri has the chunk Protection Offense
FEI 6 43
SP+ 2 94
IsoPPP+ 15 90
Rushing success rates 13 67
Passing success rate 72 34
Georgia’s season was altered this year by traumata that sapped their listing of the persuasivenes necessary to compete with fellow SEC heavyweights Alabama and Florida. The Bulldogs went hammered in both rivalries by the potent progressing attempts from the Crimson Tide and Gators and couldn’t keep up with their own offense. One major shortcoming for the Bulldogs was the unavailability of move quarterback J.T. Daniels, who was limited in fall camp by harm and got the call to start after the Florida defeat crushed Georgia’s season.
In two competitions since against Mississippi State and South Carolina, Daniels has shed 54 passes for 540 gardens at 10.0 gardens per attempt with six touchdowns and one interception. His ability to stand tall in the pocket and stretch the field vertically returns Georgia an extra dimension that Stetson Bennett absences and was inconsistent from Jake Fromm in 2019. From now on out Georgia stands out as a team that is building something superb and extremely frightening for the rest of the SEC for the 2021 season, when Daniels will return at the helm behind a more experienced offensive line after a full offseason of work in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system and with Georgia’s receivers.
Missouri’s season has calmly been jolly promising for first-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. They settled on redshirt freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson, relinquishing rush and dual-threat ability for improved extending. Drinkwitz has been able to keep the run game travelling just fine without Robinson’s ability to handle option hypothesis, mixing in a variety of blocking programmes and slants for hotshot running back Larry Rountree III, who has 170 carries for 835 yards at 4.9 grounds per carry with 11 racing touchdowns as the central weapon on offense.
He’ll face a real challenge oblige that work against Georgia, who returns nose tackle Jordan Davis healthy for this game to help free up speedy linebackers Monty Rice and Nakobe Dean to track Rountree’s trajectory from the backfield. The Bulldogs, when healthy and going strong on security, are very good at limiting opposing rushing attempts to minimal amplifications that don’t move the series efficiently. Missouri will be up against it trying to find tilts and shapes and it may come down to how well Bazelak acquires targets such as Keke Chism down the field when they are getting man coverage from the Georgia secondary.
Missouri’s defense has had a solid time and are a similarly interesting exam for the Georgia offense and Daniels as a passer. Drinkwitz moved viral online for a video where he greets with joyful exhilaration to the news of Dallas cornerback Ennis Rakestraw committing to his Tigers. Rakestraw has been an immediate boost to their defense, broken off six legislates as a newcomer starter on the outside. Missouri has had a nice control of good inside linebackers in recent years, and they are maintaining it thus far under Drinkwitz with Nick Bolton producing the style this season with a team-leading 80 attacks, 7.5 attacks for loss, and two sackings and joined by big Devin Nicholson.
The 2020 Tigers cannot accommodated their own in the box against Georgia’s big-hearted, strong onslaught direction but will probably be willing to test their recess against Daniels and the Bulldogs passing game in order to return a safety down. Most of the best Tigers, including the calls mentioned above and young edge rusher Trajan Jeffcoat, are either underclassmen or otherwise have a year or two of fitnes remaining. With a young crew and first-year head coach, there’s nothing to stop them from playing aggressively and taking some clumps while developing for future seasons. That’s a risky combination for Georgia if they aren’t health and focused enough to give them their normal shot.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Georgia’s quarterback J.T. Daniels, whose performance this year affords the Bulldogs National Championship hopes for 2021. Is Georgia going to be health fairly up front to shut down Missouri’s multi-faceted rushing attack? Georgia’s young hotshot receiver George Pickens back in the lineup and facing Missouri’s star freshman cornerback Ennis Rakestraw.
FEI Outright Pick: Georgia by 11.1
Navy at Army( -6. 5) — 3 p. m.( CBS)
Overall Navy( 3-6) Army( 7-2)
F /+ 106 62
FEI 106 56
When Navy has the projectile Pique Protection
FEI 101 53
SP+ 103 44
IsoPPP+ 108 42
Rushing success rates 115 4
Passing success rate 117 59
When Army has the projectile Justification Offense
FEI 94 64
SP+ 102 75
IsoPPP+ 51 122
Rushing success rates 91 66
Passing success rate 76 124
College football’s greatest struggle! It’s hard not to enjoy this game for all the pageantry and the countenanced terms in which both teams pummel each other with triple-option football until one overcomes the other. Navy braces the edge in the sequence and won in 2019, but Army won the three years prior and even when they don’t seem particularly strong tends to make this into a real game. Neither team renders an advantage against the other due to different tactics in this game; each crew knows how to defend the triple option and what’s going to happen.
This year, though, might be something of certain exceptions. Navy’s season has started horribly wrong, starting with a 55 -3 walloping at the pass of BYU, after which honcho instruct Ken Niumatololo revealed that his squad hadn’t rehearsed any live reps going into the game as a COVID precaution. The shortcoming of a real fall camp to fine-tune the skills needed to grind out earns with triple option football or good protection has been evident all time in the participate of the Midshipmen.
Meanwhile, Army has been pounding away with 260 -pound fullback Jakobi Buchanan( 383 racing grounds, 4.4 yards per carry, five touchdowns) and 230 -pound Sandon McCoy( 227 hastening yards, 3.4 yards per carry, 10 hastening touchdowns ). The Black Knights have rolled with three different quarterbacks this season and had some success with each of them due to the steady slog mood of the lope competition with nets and fullback dive plays.
As a helpful sketch of where these squads are this season, the Knights are 11 th nationally in third-down offense with a changeover frequency of 51. 2% while Navy is 96 th with a frequency of 35.9%. Navy has struggled mightily to change virtuoso quarterback Malcolm Perry, who had 295 carries last year for 2,017 gardens at 6.8 grounds per carry with 21 rushing touchdowns. Niumatalolo’s version of the triple alternative tends to fare best when the quarterback is a real weapon off tackle, while the Army game is all about feeing fullback dives and unbalanced locateds and keeping it up on third-and-2 or even fourth-and-3. They’re betting you can’t stop them from picking up 10 grounds in four tries.
The Midshipmen don’t have a quarterback selected for this game more, and the pooled efforts of Perry’s permutations have run for only 151 grounds all season at 2.9 gardens per carry. That drop-off is massive and a perfect sketch of their struggle to master their basic identity this season without the benefit of a normal offseason. The saving grace for Navy in this game is their own security, which has been decent and could give them some luck of interrupting the Army attack. The middle of their protection is inside linebacker Diego Fagot, a 6-foot-3, 240 -pounder who has 67 tackles, 10 undertakes for loss, and three sacks. They regularly stunt him up over the center and make him blitz -Agaps to blow a fuse oppose designs.
Behind him, safety Kevin Brennan is often on clean-up duty and patrols at the second level to eliminate big-hearted participates of the development of. Brennan will be needed in this game to clean up the move competition while Fagot is their merely real hope of stopping the Army fullbacks between the attacks and preventing the Knights from controlling the game and the clock with multiple extended drives. If this is a lower-scoring slog then Navy has a chance; if it’s about precision in the triple option, they’ve shown all time they aren’t that crew this season.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Who will get the nod at quarterback for Navy in college football’s most intense rivalry game? Can Navy’s star linebacker Diego Fagot allow the Midshipmen to eliminate the Army inside operate competition? The pageantry, attendees, and trick continues from option football sets.
FEI Outright Pick: Army by 13.7
North Carolina( -3. 5) at Miami — 3:30 p.m.( ABC)
Overall North Carolina( 7-3) Miami (8 -1)
F /+ 15 14
FEI 24 17
When North Carolina has the bullet Offense Justification
FEI 6 30
SP+ 4 12
IsoPPP+ 4 35
Rushing success rates 11 68
Passing success rates 12 27
When Miami has the clod Defense Offense
FEI 83 17
SP+ 43 24
IsoPPP+ 81 13
Rushing success rate 95 93
Passing success rate 21 59
Clemson and Notre Dame are locked in to face each other in the ACC title game, but Miami is still 8-1 and North Carolina has had a great time, so this game still necessitates something for establishing the rest of the pecking order for the conference. The Tar Heels have been propelled principally by their offense this season — offense and pass rush.
Tar Heels offensive coordinator Phil Longo comes from the Air Raid tree but has only one vigorous organisation that pairs horizontal alternative routes with running plays on RPOs. Quarterback Sam Howell has propelled for 3,129 yards at 10.5 yards per assault this year with 26 touchdowns to exactly six interceptions. He’ll smacked Dazz Newsome( 46 catches, 601 grounds, five touchdowns) over the middle-of-the-road and Dyami Brown( 51 catches, 932 grounds, eight touchdowns) on the outside, and resists get left in a bind. The detriment North Carolina can do throwing to those guys downfield on RPOs is great, but if you try to back off your champions to cover them up, the two-headed running back tandem of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter has a mixed 266 carries for 1,841 yards at 6.9 gardens per carry and 23 touchdowns.
It’s a serious dilemma most easily solved by a squad that can play man coverage. RPO-running squads often struggle to pick up continuous additions on the floor if they can’t generate light caskets and directions for their runners with boundary and vertical pass options that push defenses to dare them to run. There’s likewise the option of playing two-high and expecting the linebackers and defensive linemen to hold up without the cavalry, but that’s a difficult way to approach the problem for most programs.
Miami tends to bring the calvary when they need to stop the run. Their preceding tacklers are safes Bubba Bolden, who hangs out in the border and plummets down to help stop up the drain, and fellow safe Amari Carter. Third safety Gurvan Hall often mans up a slit as the nickel underneath, and they are effective covering the middle of the field. The challenge is coinciding Brown outside; the Miami pass rush is good with objectives Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, but you generally can’t get pressure in time to stop a vertical RPO. You have to take away the first speak for the quarterback and at that point the lack of protection can bring the offense down.
On the other side of the equation, North Carolina hasn’t represented enormous defense, but their pass justification lists have been solid. The pass surge is good, the Fox friends( Tomon and Tomari) have a blended 9.5 sacks, linebacker Chazz Surratt has another six, and then four other Tar Heels champions have at least two sacks apiece. Defensive coordinator Jay Bateman loves to produce adversity in groups of four and five while throw guards off the line of scrimmage on zone blitzes. They get pleated against the run at times and struggle to make consistent stops, but they do regularly thwart delivering designs.
It’s a tough matchup, though, against Miami, whose loped play is actually somewhat inconsistent at moving the bonds but very effective at engendering cavity and penalizing units for large-hearted movements. Quarterback D’Eriq King has 467 rushing grounds and four touchdowns and is a constant threat to break free into open grass. The Hurricanes have also been able to get receiver Mike Harley croaking; he has 43 catches for 653 grounds and five touchdowns and imparts some added explosiveness to the offense. What is the case when a boom-or-bust run defense faces a boom-or-bust spread operate abstraction?
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Can Miami match up with North Carolina’s science expertise in offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s RPO offense? Will the North Carolina blitzing protection put down Miami’s offense or get caught by their accelerate at quarterback and receiver? Aged conflicts — North Carolina principal coach Mack Brown formerly fired Miami head coach Manny Diaz when they were at Texas together earlier in the activities of the decade.
FEI Outright Pick: Miami by 5.5
Wisconsin( collect ’em) at Iowa — 3:30 p.m.( B1GN)
Overall Wisconsin( 2-2) Iowa( 5-2)
F /+ 8 12
FEI 7 12
When Wisconsin has the lump Pique Security
FEI 27 8
SP+ 35 7
IsoPPP+ 116 3
Rushing success rate 51 36
Passing success rate 90 38
When Iowa has the missile Protection Offense
FEI 4 51
SP+ 1 57
IsoPPP+ 29 117
Rushing success rate 1 33
Passing success rate 8 42
Wisconsin vs. Iowa has been a good rivalry in the era of the Big Ten West division. The recreation has often determined the department treetop and the winner gets the Heartland Trophy, a brass officer, one of college football’s numerous ridiculous and fanciful trophies and knowledge. The Badgers have won seven of the last eight games, albeit generally by somewhat narrow margins, and hence have guided the West division during that encompas of time with four schism treetops to Iowa’s one.
Both of these crews are the purest form of Big Ten West squads: the government has great play along the lines, normally good tighten ends, good linebackers, and then their ceiling in a established year often hinges on the relative character of the out-of-state skill athletes that ought to have banked to the program. In general, you don’t identify either crew with explosiveness, but hard-nosed defense and physical hasten criticizes. In the case of Wisconsin, it’s frequently about the ability rolled play, while Iowa under Kirk Ferentz is a wide zone scurry team.
This year it’s finally Iowa that has the very best featured talent on their listing. The Badgers have circled around to Jalen Berger at running back and he has run for 267 gardens at 5.9 yards per carry and a composition in some recent act. Iowa has more of a committee, but Tyler Goodson is the main guy with 656 gardens at 5.0 gardens per carry and six scores while veteran Mekkhi Sargent contributes another 381 yards at 6.0 gardens per carry and seven touchdowns. The passing game for Wisconsin looked like it might be a difference-maker in their Week 1 beatdown of Illinois, but since then quarterback Graham Mertz has averaged exclusively 6.8 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns to four interceptions.
Iowa’s defense in 2020 is about as good as it generally is and will be a awfully stern research for the Badger. Nebraska made a little headway against them a couple of weeks ago by getting their passing game proceeding when the Hawkeyes were sold out to stop the run. Wisconsin will fight if the Hawkeyes can play back in base defense and force them to earn their method down the field without ending large-scale continues with sheds over the top or embroils to the perimeter paired with the superpower led play. Weakside linebacker Nick Niemann will be key for the Hawkeyes in restrain both.
Neither quarterback stands out in this matchup as both teams are breaking in younger actors. Iowa returned a lot of quality receivers from a good 2019 delivering attack with Nate Stanley, but Spencer Petras has not manufactured the most of it with 1,358 yards at 6.2 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Iowa’s cadre of skilled receivers have been less of the emphasis and Ferentz has tried to support Petras with the passage competition instead. It has worked out fairly well, but been put forward short-lived against Northwestern, which will likely keep the Hawkeyes from prevailing the West again and advancing to the Big Ten Championship Game. They’ll have to make the most of a chance to beat Wisconsin and brought before the brass bull.
Wisconsin has played terrific run defense this year. Their ability to play some press-man coverage outside with Rachad Wildgoose and Faion Hicks has formed it very difficult to deal with their collecting of sturdy linemen, linebackers, and safeties in the middle of the field. Iowa may not be able to do much about it with Petras at the helm, but perhaps they are unable spread some drives with the play-action rollout game.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
Can either of these fighting piques score against the very well prepared and strong defenses lined up across from them? Does either squad have the racing affect or quarterback to lean them over the top in a low-scoring mud fight? The introduction of the Heartland Trophy, a brass officer that goes to the annual winner of this struggle.
FEI Outright Pick: Wisconsin by 0.4
USC( -3) at UCLA — 7:30 p.m.( ABC)
Overall USC( 4-0) UCLA( 3-2)
F /+ 17 33
FEI 18 31
When USC has the lump Pique Protection
FEI 21 39
SP+ 10 68
IsoPPP+ 72 11
Rushing success rates 32 119
Passing success rates 39 22
When UCLA has the bullet Security Offense
FEI 19 36
SP+ 35 30
IsoPPP+ 101 93
Rushing success rate 49 29
Passing success rates 33 63
This rivalry game has some enjoyable ventures with the Trojans sitting at 3-0 with a chance to play for the Pac-1 2 championship if they can beat their crosstown competitors to conclude the season and finish 4-0. Of direction the Colorado Buffaloes are also 4-0 on the season and the Pac-1 2 has a potential problem on their hands if the Trojans win this game and improvement to the title.
Colorado had both their Arizona State and USC sports cancelled due to COVID concerns for their rival. The Buffaloes included San Diego State into the schedule so they could play more activities and won that contest. If USC is able to finish 4-0 in Pac-1 2 romp while Colorado finishes 3-0, the Trojans will boost but there will be a brouhaha over the legitimacy of this claim — peculiarly when other units and conferences have shown some flexibility to move tournaments and schedule added rivalries. None of that matters, though, if the Trojans lose to the Bruins as they won’t have an extra league win over Colorado.
The Bruins are 3-2 and enjoying far and away their best season yet under Chip Kelly, who’s in Year 3 now as the principal manager. After going 3-9 and 4-8 in his first two seasons, Kelly now has the Bruins with a winning record and a chance to spoil the season for their challenger. This year’s Bruins have been able to run the missile more efficiently than in years past. Lead back Demetric Felton has 578 hastening grounds at 5.2 gardens per carry and five touchdowns while understudy Brittain Brown adds 290 at 6.4 gardens per carry with three touchdowns. Quarterback Dorian Green-Thompson has been able to protect the pellet and has a ascertained a huge boost being able to throw to close-fisted discontinue Greg Dulcich, who has 16 catches for 312 gardens and two composes. The Bruins’ two losings this season were higher-scoring tournaments and the pique has continued them in every contest.
USC’s defense has been solid this year under brand-new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, who was fired from his chore at Texas after a calamitous 2019 season. Orlando has not yet made much adversity with his aggressive blitz schemes, but the Trojans have played solid justification with returning safes Talanoa Hufanga and Isaiah Pola-Mao roaming in the middle of the field and cleaning up behind the blitzes. Hufanga in particular precedes the team in undertakes and has three interceptions flitting around the box as the strong safe while Pola-Mao tends to play on the back end as the deep safety. Juco transfer defensive end Nick Figueroa has been their most disorderly attendance with six attacks for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Kelly’s strategy will be to try and confuse the Trojans with his spread-option plans and continue Hufanga out of the picture by communicating tighten death Dulcich out on roadways for Green-Thompson to affected if Hufanga doesn’t honor that menace and snouts around the box against the move game.
UCLA will need a good plan for scoring times as their own defense will be up against it trying to stop the USC attack. Trojans quarterback Kedon Slovis has are caught up where he left off in 2019 with 1,257 legislating gardens at 7.6 grounds per attempt with 10 touchdowns to two interceptions. USC has been able to move the chunk regularly in the air spreading it around between four different receivers, many of which are large-scale, chains-moving targets that are difficult to match up against. The top person is Amon-Ra St. Brown, a former five-star recruit from neighbourhood private school powerhouse Mater Dei high school. St. Brown has 26 catches for 331 and four touchdowns and improves generating some explosiveness and accelerated to the equation opposite Tyler Vaughns. On the inside, Slovis has 6-foot-5 tight tip/ slit hybrid Drake London and 6-foot-3, 220 -pound onetime five-star Bru McCoy.
The Bruins security this season has settled on using sub-packages with several defensive backs to try and contain defending piques, which is a good start in facing this Trojans offense.
Watch for 😛 TAGEND
UCLA tighten mission Greg Dulcich going up against USC strong refuge Talanoa Hufanga. Can UCLA match up with all of USC’s perilous receivers in the Air Raid offense? Pac-12 Championship Game inferences — there’s a lot of drama around the process but a UCLA win would contradict it.
FEI Outright Pick: USC by 1.9
FEI PICKS: WEEK 15
Favorite Spread Underdog FEI Pick FEI Pick
Against the Spread Ian’s Pick
Against the Spread
Georgia 13 at Missouri Georgia Missouri Georgia at Army 6.5 Navy Army Army Navy North Carolina 3.5 at Miami Miami Miami Miami Wisconsin Even at Iowa Wisconsin Wisconsin Iowa USC 3 at UCLA USC USC UCLA
FEI picks against the spread in Week 14: 4-2
FEI selects against the spread this year: 43 -3 2-1
Ian’s picks against the spread in Week 14: 3-3
Ian’s Picks against the spread this year: 41 -3 4-1
by Aaron Brooks G … // Dec 11, 2020 – 2:24 pm
Colorado had both their Arizona State and USC sports nullified due to COVID publications for their resist. The Buffaloes supplemented San Diego State into the schedule so they could play more sports and won that contest. If USC is able to finish 4-0 in Pac-1 2 play while Colorado finishes 3-0, the Trojans will boost but there will be a brouhaha over the legitimacy of this title
It was always nakedly obvious that some crews would opportunistically use Covid to bounce a game to screw over another team.
I’m stunned none of the documents of the conference accounted for this.
Read more: footballoutsiders.com