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Start and Sit: Week 10

Start and Sit: Week 10 Scott Spratt 12 Nov 2020, 03:06 pm

Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson

If you had any doubts about weather’s potential to affect fantasy scoring, Week 8 should have allayed them. That Sunday, heavy breaths and sporadic precipitation across the north and northeast led to some interesting game scripts and stat totals, highlighted by Dalvin Cook’s 30 carries and 226 total gardens in Green Bay and Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr’s compounded 233 guiding yards in Cleveland. The breath and downpour shouldn’t be quite so widespread this weekend, but Green Bay and Cleveland remain the focal points with forecasted puffs north of 15 mph and moderate chances of rain in both cities. And that should have a major impact on fantasy this weekend with regular top-1 0 quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson feigned and Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan already on bye. This sounds like a job for matchup plays!

The following tables aspect the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each scheduled musician shows a true-talent( TT) rank that represents how I would rank him with a perfectly neutral sport context. Then, that ranking is adjusted by adding the context of the venue( Ven) — home and road and dome and outside — the forecasted weather( Wea ), and dissident bents( Opp ). The pipeline beneath those positions shows how much those contextual influences move projected PPR fantasy sites. That total( Tot) numeral gives people a thorough forecast of how many fantasy phases the actor will value this week more or less than his typical total.

You can see our full weekly juttings with projected stats, matchup accommodations and fantasy targets by subscribing to FO +.

Quarterbacks

Best Week 10 Matchups – Quarterbacks

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot D.Lock DEN 0 LV Rk 24 22 22 18

Pts

+1.1 0.0 +0.9 +2.0 D.Carr LV 1 Cavern Rk 20 12 13 12

Pts

+1.5 0.0 0.0 +1.5 N.Foles CHI 1 MIN Rk 18 18 18 10

Pts

-0. 1 +0.1 +1.3 +1.3 J.Goff LAR 1 Sea Rk 18 16 15 12

Pts

+0.9 0.0 +0.3 +1.2 K.Murray ARI 1 BUF Rk 1 1 1 1

Pts

+1.1 0.0 0.0 +1.1

With those condition and bye-bye concerns and many of the second-tier fantasy quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow facing difficult justifications( which I will discuss shortly ), Kyler Murray stands head-and-shoulders above the other options at the position this week. Frankly, one could argue he’s there independent of matchup. His 30.1 illusion parts per play are two full points ahead of even Lamar Jackson’s outrageous tempo from 2019. But I still don’t hate to see Murray playing at home in the dome in Arizona and facing a Bills team that has underwhelmed with the No. 15 DVOA pass defense this season. You wouldn’t ever bench him, but it’s interesting to note that Murray has averaged 2.6 more fantasy points per tournament at home than along the road in his busines, a typically extreme separate for an indoor quarterback even if one would assume his rushing would annul those types of concerns.

If you don’t have the benefit of Murray’s fantasy assistances, you may be stuck playing the cable. Fortunately, there are a handful of strong alternatives among the normal QB2 rank. Derek Carr and Jared Goff are the best of those options. They both experience the same home-dome benefit as Murray and has been shown similarly extreme residence/ street splits of four. 4 and 1.3 more fantasy phases per tournament at home than on the road since 2017. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Seahawks are neutral or better defensive adversaries for quarterback valuing, the onetime because of a top-five boosting of pass gamblings and the latter because of top-five boosting of pass dallies and pass effectivenes. Seattle advances consummation percentage and yards per pass attempt by 4% and 10%, respectively.

In a deeper format, you can take a gamble on naturally iffy alternatives Drew Lock and Nick Foles, who at least have plus defensive matchups to help them this week. The Raiders are a much bigger booster of rushing effectivenes than transferring productivity, but critical for Lock and his tendencies, they are the No. 2 cutter of both interceptions and mistakes per pass attempt. Lock may avoid paying turnovers that sabotaged his myth struggles against the Patriots and Chiefs in Weeks 6 and 7. Meanwhile, the Vikings owe the greater part of their obviou defensive turnaround in recent weeks to Dalvin Cook and the No. 1 DVOA run offense. With a Bears defense that may be able to slow Cook down and balance play totals, Foles can take advantage of a Vikings defense that is a top-three increaser of both grounds and touchdowns per pass attempt.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Quarterbacks

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot T.Brady TB 0 CAR Rk 9 14 13 16

Pts

-1. 3 +0.1 -0. 7 -1.9 C.Newton NE 1 BAL Rk 13 14 15 21

Pts

0.0 -0.2 -1. 6 -1.8 R.Tannehill TEN 1 IND Rk 10 10 9 15

Pts

-0. 4 +0.1 -1. 3 -1.6 J.Herbert LAC 0 MIA Rk 5 6 6 7

Pts

-1. 0 -0.3 +0.3 -1.0 J.Burrow CIN 0 PIT Rk 8 9 10 9

Pts

-0. 5 -0.4 +0.1 -0.8

Brady has been a fantasy star this year when he has played outside of his new division. Now with a top-1 0 DVOA ranking, the Saints may have a good enough defense to partially show Brady’s passing positions with fewer than 240 yards and at least two interceptions in Weeks 1 and 9 against them. But his 217 -yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 2 against the Panthers is a great reminder of how fantasy can differ from reality. The Panthers are a top-six cutter of overtaking touchdowns per attempt but not because they are a standout pass defense — they are just 21 st in that DVOA. They increase quarterback illusion creation because they are an even worse defense against the range( 24 th) and are set out in blowouts that encourage their opponents to run the ball to kill clock in the second half. The Bucs rolled 22 terms for 122 grounds and three touchdowns in their previous congregate. Expect even more carries the coming week with the team eager to put their historically low-spirited production of exactly five carries last week behind them.

Tannehill, Herbert, and Burrow suffer similar projected fantasy lessens this week, but theirs are much easier to discern than Brady’s is. The Colts, Dolphins, and Steelers all have top-eight DVOA pass justifications, and the onetime two are top-eight cutters of passing touchdowns per aim as well. The Colts and Steelers probably don’t surprise you in that respect. But if their No. 32 group from last year’s maybe-tanking team is stuck in your sentiment, take note that the Dolphins are making a 49 ers- and Bucs-level defensive bounce this season. They too have a Chiefs-like disparity in the qualifications of the their pass( eighth) and race( 29 th) defenses that should inspire their rivals to try to run the missile more to are benefiting from that defensive weakness. I don’t know whether to advocate Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, Troymaine Pope, or Kalen Ballage this week. But at least in daily formats, Herbert is an self-evident fade, coming from third in my true-talent rankings to seventh this week.

Running Backs

Best Week 10 Matchups – Running Backs

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot N.Chubb CLE 1 HOU Rk 17 17 17 14

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.8 +1.0 A.Jones GB 1 JAX Rk 4 4 4 3

Pts

+0.1 0.0 +0.8 +0.9 J.Conner PIT 1 CIN Rk 15 12 12 11

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.6 +0.8 J.Robinson JAX 0 GB Rk 11 11 11 10

Pts

0.0 -0.1 +0.8 +0.7 L.Fournette TB 0 CAR Rk 13 14 14 11

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 +0.7 +0.6

The 227 -pound Nick Chubb skeweds more dominance than similarly impressive but stylistically different teammate Kareem Hunt( 216 pounds ). That may explain why Hunt “only” controlled 76 yards on his 18 carries and failed to score in the ponderous puff and flood in Week 8 against the Bengals. Coming off an injured fund period and as one of the purposes of a unit whose quarterback’s availability is its biggest storey this week, Chubb has a rare chance to fly under the radar. I desire him in this spot. The Texans can make a case to be the best defense for a back to face in fantasy, boosting grounds and touchdowns per carry by 28% and 43% respectively. And that is before even considering the possible inclement weather.

I assume everyone will be hip to Aaron Jones’ wind-aided plus matchup this weekend. Even in neutral positions, the Jaguars increase their opponents’ hastening participates by 5% and improve touchdowns by 25% per aim. But don’t sleep on the possibility that the Jaguars can do to the Packers what the road Vikings did to them two weeks ago. With the interests of their full-season efficiency, the Jaguars( 30 th in DVOA) are not on the Vikings'( 14 th) grade. But the Jags have a particular strength in run-blocking with 4.61 adjusted line yards, sixth-best in football and not dramatically behind the Vikings in first place( 5.17 ). And while undrafted rookie James Robinson is not yet a household name, he is fourth in fantasy scoring and definitely capable of taking advantage of a justification that is the No. 1 booster of touchdowns per carry at 93%.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Running Backs

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot R.Mostert SF 0 NO Rk 19 19 19 22

Pts

-0. 3 0.0 -0. 9 -1.2 D.Henry TEN 1 IND Rk 5 5 5 6

Pts

+0.3 0.0 -1. 4 -1.1 C.Carson Ocean 0 LAR Rk 12 15 15 17

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 6 -1.0 J.Mixon CIN 0 PIT Rk 7 7 7 9

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 8 -0.9 D.Cook MIN 0 CHI Rk 1 1 1 2

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 6 -0.7

Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry face difficult movement securities in the Bears( seventh in DVOA) and Colts( second) the coming week. But that is only a concern for daily formats. Even in some of the worst possible matchups, they fall to simply second and sixth in my weekly running back rankings.

Late word out of San Francisco is that Raheem Mostert will not play this week in New Orleans as he is still fighting to return from an ankle hurt. We are leaving him up in our table to indicate that the Saints are still a bad matchup for any of his replacings, be it Jerick McKinnon, Jamal Hasty or Tevin Coleman. Holding the Bucs to five carries may have been extreme, but the Saints are the No. 4 cutter of defending carries, reducing them by 14% per activity. They restraint David Montgomery and Mike Davis to precisely 28 carries and 101 grounds combined in Weeks 7 and 8 before the Bucs blowout, and the 49 ers may have too many hurts in their passing game to involve a balanced defensive approach.

It’s a same statu for Seattle and Cincinnati. Chris Carson and Joe Mixon may or may not play this week, but their replaces would also face poor matchups. The Rams have one-man wrecking crew in Aaron Donald. And while Donald may be a bigger deterrent to his opponent’s passing games than running games, that may actually matter more for backs’ potential for fantasy success. To part, the Rams chipped touchdowns per carry by 47%, third-most in football.

And while the Steelers have underwhelmed the last two weeks in allowing 265 and 243 racing grounds to the Ravens and Cowboys, those totals is typically have an impact on those specific matchups. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson to undermine any defensive game plan. And despite their offensive course injuries, the Cowboys remain top-1 0 in run-blocking with 4.48 adjusted course grounds this season. The Bengals don’t have that luxury( 3.71, 31 st ), and if they fall behind on Sunday, Joe Burrow may have to shed another 40 -plus pass assaults at the expensive of Bengals’ running back touches.

Wide Receivers

Best Week 10 Matchups – Wide Receivers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot S.Diggs BUF 0 ARI Rk 7 5 5 3

Pts

+1.2 0.0 +1.1 +2.3 D.Hopkins ARI 1 BUF Rk 5 2 2 2

Pts

+1.7 0.0 +0.4 +2.1 C.Kupp LAR 1 Sea Rk 15 9 9 8

Pts

+1.4 0.0 +0.5 +1.9 A.Robinson CHI 1 MIN Rk 12 12 12 7

Pts

-0. 3 0.0 +1.6 +1.3 T.McLaurin WAS 0 DET Rk 3 4 4 4

Pts

+1.2 0.0 -0. 1 +1.1

Domes are just as important for receiver make as they are for quarterback production, so it’s little surprise to see Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Kupp, and Terry McLaurin on the plus matchups list playing in Arizona, Los Angeles, and Detroit this week. But compensate close to attention to their opponent adjustments, extremely, because they don’t perfectly are compatible with their broader defensive trends.

The Cardinals have uttered major strides, improving from the 26 th DVOA pass defense last year to the 11 th this year. But while they chipped productivities to No. 2, slit, and deep receivers, the Cardinal lift No. 1 receiver gardens and touchdowns per target by 14% and 77%, respectively.

In contrast, the Bills have refused from the sixth to the 15 th DVOA pass defense, but cornerback Tre’Davious White secures a neutral justification against No. 1 receivers. DeAndre Hopkins should gain more than he loses, but he may fall short of his usual league-best target share — although keep an eye on White’s ankle injury.

The Seahawks likely owe most of the held accountable for their fourth-worst DVOA pass defense to their secondary, which will be even weaker this week with cornerbacks Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar injured. But wizard linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright have not been enough to keep slot receivers such as Kupp in check, either. They boost yards and touchdowns per target by 38% and 62% to the position.

And receivers haven’t experienced the full delusion benefits of facing a below-average Lions pass defense( 18 th) because their operate protection is even worse( 25 th ). That has inspired opponents to call 17% more guided gamblings against them, a predilection that in turn has chipped touchdowns per target for every receiver group.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Wide Receivers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot K.Allen LAC 0 MIA Rk 3 8 8 11

Pts

-0. 7 0.0 -1. 2 -1.9 R.Anderson Car 1 TB Rk 9 11 10 16

Pts

-0. 4 +0.1 -1. 2 -1.5 D.Metcalf SEA 0 LAR Rk 5 7 7 9

Pts

+0.2 0.0 -1. 6 -1.4 A.Thielen MIN 0 CHI Rk 16 17 18 21

Pts

-0. 5 -0.1 -0. 5 -1.1 W.Fuller HOU 0 CLE Rk 17 19 19 24

Pts

-0. 7 +0.1 -0. 5 -1.1

I’ve spent some ink on breakout third- and second-year cover areas Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean, who even after the Bucs’ lopsided loss to the Saints remain in the top 10 at the position allowing merely 4.9 and 5.5 grounds per target. But cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard have stimulus a defensive leaping for the Dolphins this season as well. They haven’t been quite at the Davis and Dean level, but they are both above median in allowing 7.5 and 8.0 grounds per target. That lands Keenan Allen a similar jutting loss to Robby Anderson this week. You should never forestall either participate in traditional formats. Their 29.8% and 27.5% target share are firstly and sixth at the position his season. But facing difficult protections the coming week, both receivers come from my true-talent pinnacle 10 to positions in the teens.

Tight Ends

Best Week 10 Matchups – Tight Ends

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot T.Hockenson DET 1 WAS Rk 2 2 2 2

Pts

+0.5 0.0 +0.6 +1.1 D.Waller LV 1 Cave Rk 1 1 1 1

Pts

+0.6 0.0 +0.1 +0.7 J.Graham CHI 1 MIN Rk 5 5 5 4

Pts

0.0 0.0 +0.7 +0.7 E.Engram NYG 1 PHI Rk 4 4 3 3

Pts

0.0 +0.1 +0.5 +0.6 R.Tonyan GB 1 JAX Rk 18 18 18 17

Pts

0.0 -0.1 +0.4 +0.3

Tight end is a wasteland in general this season, but this week should be especially difficult with Travis Kelce on bye. Fortunately for DFS musicians, top-two remaining true-talent alternatives Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson have good matchups. Both participates are at home in their domes this week. And Waller evokes a Broncos defense that are contributing to pass attempts by 3% and tighten point yards by 6% per target while Hockenson will see a Washington defense that boosts gardens and touchdowns to tighten discontinues by 8% and 64% per target, respectively.

Aaron Rodgers was the one quarterback who overcome the Week 8 condition editions( 291 grounds and three touchdowns) and generally has withstood the normal positional venue and weather directions. That gives me confidence that Robert Tonyan can take advantage of one of the most wonderful matchups for tighten goals — the Jaguars increase yards and touchdowns by 29% and 117% per target to the position. But Tonyan isn’t a TE1 for me this week because of his lowered true-talent ranking. With Allen Lazard expected to return to the Packers lineup, Tonyan seems likely to fall to Rodgers’ fourth option for targets.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Tight Ends

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot J.Smith TEN 1 IND Rk 6 7 6 9

Pts

-0. 1 +0.1 -1. 1 -1.1 M.Andrews BAL 0 NE Rk 3 3 3 5

Pts

0.0 -0.3 -0. 7 -1.0 H.Henry LAC 0 MIA Rk 9 10 10 9

Pts

-0. 1 -0.2 -0. 3 -0.6 D.Sample CIN 0 PIT Rk 33 35 36 39

Pts

0.0 -0.1 -0. 3 -0.4 D.Fells HOU 0 CLE Rk 23 23 23 24

Pts

0.0 -0.1 -0. 2 -0.3

I’m not sure it’s full-on panic time for Mark Andrews, who has now produced three or fewer catches for 32 or fewer gardens and failed to score for three straight tournaments. Some of that was likely matchup-related. Andrews faced the Steelers and Colts the last two weeks, the No. 1 and 10 DVOA defenses against the position this season. But easing may still be another week away since Andrews’ Week 10 antagonist, the Patriots, are the second-best tight culminate defense and chipped touchdowns per target by 83% to the position. There aren’t fairly alternatives at the position to push Andrews out of my top five, but I’m not keen to use him in my daily lineups.

Fantasy musicians may want to extend the “low target breadths are better in the wind” Tonyan logic to Texans tight end Darren Fells playing in Cleveland, but for me, he’s a tougher auction. Collapses had his best competitions of the season with 57 yards and a orchestrate and 85 grounds and a tally in Weeks 5 and 6 when teammate Jordan Akins was sidelined with ankle and honcho traumata. With Akins playing, Fells has covered at 26 grounds this season, and even that could be a tall order against a Browns defense that cuts gardens per target by 16% to the position.

Kickers

Best Week 10 Matchups – Kickers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot D.Carlson LV 1 DEN Rk 17 10 10 6

Pts

+0.3 0.0 +0.2 +0.5 K.Forbath LAR 1 Sea Rk 9 5 5 3

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.3 C.Santos CHI 1 MIN Rk 22 21 17 14

Pts

0.0 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 W.Lutz NO 1 SF Rk 1 1 1 1

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.3

With top-1 0 true-talent rankings, Wil Lutz and Kai Forbath theoretically would be K1s within neutral frameworks. They only never get that playing their residence tournaments in the domes in New Orleans and Los Angeles, respectively. Use them as top-three kicker alternatives there the coming week. And if you need a waiver substitute for either Harrison Butker or Younghoe Koo on bye, consider Daniel Carlson. He doesn’t get the high-altitude distance bump playing the Broncos in Las Vegas that he would dally them in Denver, but he doesn’t need it. He has already drilled three kicks from 54 grounds this season and should have extra openings from both short and long collection facing a top-1 0 booster of field goal attempts.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Kickers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot M.Badgley LAC 0 MIA Rk 20 23 24 26

Pts

-0. 2 -0.1 -0. 5 -0.8 R.Blankenship IND 0 TEN Rk 10 15 15 22

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 5 -0.6 N.Folk NE 1 BAL Rk 17 15 17 24

Pts

+0.1 -0.2 -0. 4 -0.5 R.Bullock CIN 0 PIT Rk 3 3 4 8

Pts

-0. 2 -0.1 -0. 2 -0.5

After attempting three or more field goals in each of the Colts’ first five tournaments, Rodrigo Blankenship has just two tries in the last three. I think that’s a result of his matchups since the Bengals, Lions, and Ravens all cut short attempts, the latter two by 40% or more. Unfortunately for the rookie, he could spend most of another week on the sidelines. Like those recent antagonists, the Titan cut short field goal aims by 20%. And they too trimmed long ones by 51%, second-most in football.

Securities

Best Week 10 Matchups – Defenses

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot Steelers DST PIT 1 CIN Rk 4 2 1 1

Pts

+0.2 +0.3 +0.8 +1.3 Ravens DST BAL 0 NE Rk 6 6 6 3

Pts

0.0 +0.2 +1.0 +1.2 Giants DST NYG 1 PHI Rk 3 1 2 2

Pts

+0.2 -0.1 +0.7 +0.8 Countenances DST CHI 1 MIN Rk 14 14 15 11

Pts

+0.1 0.0 +0.4 +0.5

With the Steelers and Ravens as every-week options in fantasy, the Whale and Bears are the teams to consider with matchups the coming week. And for all the scorning of the NFC East, that subdivision has some nice securities. New York( 22 nd) can’t coincide Washington( sixth) or Philadelphia( 11 th) in terms of DVOA, but they have been the best of the bunch and a top-1 0 alternative in most fantasy formats. And while they likely can ascribe much of that success to facing the poor offensives of their department adversaries, the Heavyweight should again enjoy that benefit at home against the Eagles this week. With both Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery positioned to play, the Eagles may be closer to full fortitude than they’ve been in two months. But that won’t fix their offensive argument, which is second-worst with its 8.7% adjusted bag frequency. The Eagles are a top-three booster of both sacks per pass endeavor and attacks for loss, so expect the Heavyweight to establish some big frolics and magnetism some turnovers.

The Bears feel like the riskier choice. Their relative weakness against the stream( seventh in DVOA) versus the pass( fourth) plays into the Vikings’ wished programme of loping early and often. But while it was possible to the worse of its two aspects, the Bears run defense is dramatically better than both the Packers( 20 th) and Lions( 25 th) that Dalvin Cook shredded the last two weeks. If they can force the Vikings into a balanced offense, then the Bears should have fantasy success as top-1 0 increasers of interceptions per pass struggle and facing an offense that is a top-1 0 booster of sacks per pass attempt.

Worst Week 10 Matchups – Defenses

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot Bills DST BUF 0 ARI Rk 8 10 10 13

Pts

-0. 3 0.0 -0. 4 -0.7 Broncos DST DEN 0 LV Rk 17 20 20 19

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 1 -0.5 Chargers DST LAC 0 MIA Rk 23 23 21 25

Pts

+0.1 +0.2 -0. 3 0.0 Bucs DST TB 0 CAR Rk 12 11 11 12

Pts

+0.1 0.0 -0. 1 0.0

It’s easy to envisage at least the Chargers and Bucs justifications having fantasy success on Sunday. The former faces rookie Tua Tagovailoa after one bad and one good NFL start. And the latter will likely want to take out its Week 9 foilings on a Panthers offense without its stellar running back Christian McCaffrey. I won’t tell you to avoid them. The tiny loss we project for the Chargers and Bucs in facing those offenses are outweighed by playing outdoors — even without poor forecasted climate, it’s better to avoid the domes that so dramatically improve offensive make. The real conclude those justifications shore in the bad matchups register is that they don’t have self-evident plus ones this week. That is all about for a bunch of appealing protections and could serve as the disqualifier for daily consideration.

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