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Start and Sit: Week 3

Start and Sit: Week 3 Scott Spratt 24 Sep 2020, 01:06 pm

Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

Week 2’s blitz of traumata may have wreaked disruption on your imagination squads, but it opens the door for a number of nontraditional matchup starts in Week 3. If you’ll be without heavy hitters such as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Michael Thomas this week, consider plug-and-plays such as James Robinson, John Kelley, John Brown, and Tre’Quan Smith with matchup increases and still offered in many shallow leagues.

The following tables facet the players with the best and worst matchups of the week. Each registered player reveals a true-talent( TT) higher-ranking that represents how I would grade him with a perfectly neutral tournament situation. Then, that grading is adjusted by adding the context of the venue( Ven) — home and road and dome and outside — the forecasted weather( Wea ), and foe penchants( Opp ). The strand beneath those ranks would indicate that much those contextual influences move projected PPR fantasy targets. That total( Tot) number gives people a exhaustive estimate of how many fantasy details the participate will orchestrate this week more or less than his typical total.

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Quarterbacks

Best Week 3 Matchups – Quarterbacks

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot G.Minshew JAX 1 MIA Rk 10 13 13 8

Pts

-0. 3 +0.1 +2.1 +1.9 K.Murray ARI 1 DET Rk 3 2 2 2

Pts

+1.2 0.0 +0.7 +1.9 M.Trubisky CHI 0 ATL Rk 23 19 19 15

Pts

+0.8 0.0 +0.9 +1.7 M.Stafford DET 0 ARI Rk 19 14 14 11

Pts

+0.9 0.0 +0.6 +1.5 D.Brees NO 1 GB Rk 17 11 11 11

Pts

+1.6 0.0 -0. 2 +1.4

If there were any doubt that dual-threat quarterbacks settled the delusion play in 2020, one look at my top five at the position this week would lessen them. With Patrick Mahomes bumped to sixth with a difficult road game in Baltimore, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen are my one-to-five. And truly exactly Murray benefits from a plus-plus matchup at home against the Lions. His rushing will likely become him less sensitive to matchups than most quarterbacks, but he still represents his house games in a dome. He has scored 1.5 more fantasy tops per activity there than on the road over 18 career starts. The venue was enough to bump him to second for me this week — he’s previously up to third in my true-talent rankings. But he should also is conducive to a Lions opponent that boosts passing grounds and touchdowns per attempt by 3% and 26% and sections transferring interceptions by 61%, the latter proportion being the second-highest in football.

Daily actors can consider a stack with that Cardinals-Lions game. Matthew Stafford doesn’t enjoy the extreme bump he would at home, but the road-dome venue still boosts finish percentage, grounds per target, and touchdowns per target by 2% each, better charges than outdoor quarterbacks ordeal at home. And even if they haven’t registered it against the injury-depleted San Francisco and Washington offenses, the Cardinals campaign as a pass-friendly defense with 7% and 29% raises for gardens and touchdowns per attempt.

Whether or not you believe in momentum, you probably don’t need an explanation of why Mitchell Trubisky becomes a mid-tier QB2 this week at home against the Falcons protection. They are a top-eight booster of finish percentage, yards per target, and touchdowns per target and have allowed a cool 78 stations in two games this season. But Gardner Minshew and Drew Brees may surprise you in my surface 12 at its own position, especially after the Saints’ loss in Las Vegas and Brees’ circulated republican comedy — his 4.9 average depth of heave is more than a yard short of the field of starters this year. For Brees, you simply need to remember that he has orchestrated 5.2 more fantasy phases per activity at home than on the road since 2017, third-most at its own position. For Minshew, it’s a combination of a few factors. One, his career average of 24 scurrying yards per sport makes a big difference for fantasy. And two, the Dolphins are the No. 1 increaser of both extending yards and touchdowns per struggle at 18% and 57%, respectively.

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Quarterbacks

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot D.Watson HOU 0 PIT Rk 5 6 6 9

Pts

-0. 7 +0.1 -1. 1 -1.7 J.Goff LAR 0 BUF Rk 21 27 27 29

Pts

-0. 5 -0.3 -0. 9 -1.7 P.Mahomes KC 0 BAL Rk 2 3 3 6

Pts

-0. 6 0.0 -1. 1 -1.7 T.Brady TB 0 DEN Rk 13 18 18 23

Pts

-1. 0 +0.1 -0. 8 -1.7 D.Carr LV 0 NE Rk 27 30 29 31

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 9 -1.3

I mentioned Mahomes, but he and Deshaun Watson are two ordinary top-five starters that fall to the back end of my top 10 this week because of their matchups. Mahomes’ half-point knock for being on the road may overstate his sense to venue; he has scored 4.1 more points per activity on the road so far in his profession. But the Ravens are no joke defensively. They really supported Watson to 275 -1- 1 in Houston on Sunday and generally cut pass continues by 3 %, period percentage by 8 %, tos gardens by 13% per assault, and passing touchdowns by 36% per attempt. All four of those frequencies are top-five in football. And as tough as the Ravens were and are, the Steelers may be tougher. They are a top-two forcer of interceptions and passer flubs, and Watson generally averages more 2.2 more points at home than on the road where he’ll be this week.

As true-talent QB2s or QB3s, Jared Goff and Derek Carr should probably only start for your illusion teams when they are dwelling. Even without domes, they have shown extreme home-field advantages of 2.2 and 4.8 more fantasy sites at home the last three years. It’s too soon to say how Tom Brady will take to his new shovels in Tampa Bay, but I would bench him irrespective this week because of his Broncos opponent. They cut gardens and touchdowns per attempt by 4% and 17%, both top 10 in football.

Running Backs

Best Week 3 Matchups – Running Backs

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot M.Sanders PHI 1 CIN Rk 11 9 9 7

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +1.0 +1.2 A.Ekeler LAC 1 Gondola Rk 21 20 20 16

Pts

0.0 0.0 +1.1 +1.1 J.Kelley LAC 1 Automobile Rk 39 39 39 35

Pts

0.0 0.0 +1.0 +1.0 J.Conner Excavation 1 HOU Rk 16 15 15 14

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.6 +0.8 J.Robinson JAX 1 MIA Rk 18 18 18 18

Pts

+0.1 0.0 +0.5 +0.6

After missing Week 1, Miles Sanders sanctioned our assumption of his bell-cow status by taking 76.9% of the Eagles’ carries in Week 2. That instilled confidence comes at the perfect time with the team set to play the porous Bengals security on Sunday. The Bengals are the No. 2 booster of feed plays at 12% and are also top-1 0 increasers of hastening yards per carry, racing touchdowns per carry, running back completion percentage, running back yards per target, and running back touchdowns per target. Sanders startles from outside of my true-talent top 10 to seventh at the position this week.

The Chargers’ lack of a bell-cow back prevents them from attending the biggest increase for their individual running back the coming week, something the Panthers opponent commonly experiences thanks to their 23% and 161% lifts to gardens and touchdowns per carry, both most for its own position. Still, Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley should each pay an extra PPR point this week. Ekeler terminates up 16 th at the position with the boost and the greater share of projected workload. But, subjectively, I might appraise Kelley higher than his 35 th-place ranking. He has a four-to-one advantage over Ekeler in carries taken inside the 5-yard route this season. If the Chargers are going to continue the streak of teams scoring three hastening touchdowns against the Panthers per week, I would bet on Kelley to score at least two of them.

A pair of Jameses round out the five best running back matchups, and I’m amazingly much more confident in Robinson than in Conner. Conner shook off his ankle injury from Week 1 to make 72.7% of the Steelers’ carries on Sunday. That was top-1 0 at its own position and hints he never lost his bell-cow status, just in time for a residence game against a Texans defense that improves grounds per carry by 17% and gardens and touchdowns per running back target by 10% and 140%, respectively. But Robinson has done it twice with 69.6% and 59.3% carry shares in Weeks 1 and 2, the Jaguars are playing well offensively, and their Dolphins opponent is the No. 1 booster of passed plays in addition to increasing gardens per carry and running back completion percentage, yards per target, and touchdowns per target. You can start Robinson as an RB2 with confidence.

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Running Backs

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot F.Gore NYJ 0 IND Rk 26 27 27 29

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 9 -1.3 J.Jacobs LV 0 NE Rk 5 5 5 6

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -1. 1 -1.2 D.Johnson HOU 0 PIT Rk 18 20 20 21

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -1. 0 -1.1 M.Gordon DEN 1 TB Rk 8 7 7 9

Pts

+0.3 0.0 -1. 3 -1.0 A.Jones GB 0 NO Rk 6 7 7 7

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 6 -1.0

With Phillip Lindsay still not rehearsing and apparently likely to miss another activity this week, Melvin Gordon affiliates Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones as the bell-cow backs you cannot sit in traditional illusion formats despite difficult matchups against the Buccaneers, Patriots, and Saints this week. But Gordon scares me despite his top-1 0 weekly projection. The Bucs do not project to decrease rushing touchdowns, but their 33% reduction in opponent grounds per carry is more in football. And with Jeff Driskel starting for an disabled Drew Lock at quarterback, Gordon may attract these sorts of defensive attention that turns video games with 25 contacts into exactly 60 total yards.

Speaking of 25 -6 0 games, Frank Gore had his first of what “couldve been” various on Sunday with Le’Veon Bell sidelined with a hamstring injury. The Colts don’t seem almost a shocking for contrast running backs as the 49 ers were — at least before their gashes — but Indianapolis does trimmed racing touchdowns by 54%, third-most in football. Genuinely, there’s little ground for the Colts not to experiment Sam Darnold and the dreary Sprays passing game this weekend. And while that formula often leads to fantasy success for certain kinds of running backs, Gore remains without a target through two games this season and nearly descends out of my top 30 PPR backs despite a heavy projected carry share.

Wide Receivers

Best Week 3 Matchups – Wide Receivers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot J.Brown BUF 1 LAR Rk 36 35 37 18

Pts

+0.3 -0.1 +1.9 +2.1 T.Smith NO 1 GB Rk 42 32 32 25

Pts

+1.4 0.0 +0.6 +2.0 K.Allen LAC 1 Auto Rk 18 8 8 8

Pts

+1.7 0.0 +0.2 +1.9 D.Hopkins ARI 1 DET Rk 2 2 2 2

Pts

+2.5 0.0 -0. 7 +1.8 A.Thielen MIN 1 TEN Rk 14 6 6 5

Pts

+1.8 0.0 0.0 +1.8

I did a double-take when I witness John Brown ranked ahead of Stefon Diggs this week. Diggs has out-targeted his teammate 22 -to-1 6 through two sports, and I project a similar target variance for the receivers the coming week. But the Rams employ one of the preeminent submerge corners in football in Jalen Ramsey, and unsurprisingly they chipped No. 1 receiver gardens and touchdowns per target by 14% and 46%, third- and seventh-most in football, respectively. As a depth menace, Brown should have an easier occasion with the Rams this week. Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and James Washington all beat them for a penetrating compose in 2019, and DeSean Jackson paced the Eagles with six catches and 64 grounds against L.A. last week.

With Michael Thomas sidelined, it wasn’t Emmanuel Sanders ( 8.1% target share) who presupposed the Saints’ No. 1 receiver character on Monday evening. It was third-year presumed failure Tre’Quan Smith( 18.9% ). That one game wasn’t enough to rush Smith into my true-talent top 40 receivers, but his home matchup against the Packers does. Smith makes an excellent DFS tournament play, although I subjectively trust him less than his standing would on its own suggest.

For participates looking for top-end options the coming week, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, and Keenan Allen all experience 1.0 – to 2.0 -PPR point lifts the coming week with residence matchups against the Lions, Titans, and Panthers, respectively. Thielen hurtled back to earth with a 31 -yard , no-touchdown Week 2 at the Colts after 110 and two in Week 1 at home against the Packers. But his 33.3% target share is still second at the position — behind Hopkins( 35.7%) — and his pit Titans are a top-six booster of pass toys with their relative defensive persuasivenes against the operate( -1 4.5% DVOA in 2019, 11 th) versus the pass( 12.5%, 22 nd ).

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Wide Receivers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot M.Evans TB 0 DEN Rk 7 12 11 20

Pts

-0. 9 +0.1 -1. 2 -2.0 T.Hill KC 0 BAL Rk 5 7 7 14

Pts

-0. 6 0.0 -1. 4 -2.0 R.Gage ATL 1 CHI Rk 39 42 42 50

Pts

-0. 2 0.0 -1. 2 -1.4 R.Woods LAR 0 BUF Rk 26 29 30 35

Pts

-0. 4 -0.2 -0. 6 -1.2 A.Green CIN 0 PHI Rk 22 23 23 29

Pts

-0. 5 0.0 -0. 4 -0.9

Mike Evans killed any concerns you might have had after the Bucs’ rough Week 1 with seven catches, 104 yards, and a touchdown in Week 2 against the Panthers. But those figures may be difficult to repeat with Chris Godwin returning from a concussion and traveling to Denver. The Broncos are relatively strong against late receivers — they trimmed yards and touchdowns by 19% and 85% per target — as compared to ordinary and slit receivers. And Tyreek Hill may have same questions in Baltimore. He missed last-place season’s matchup with the Ravens with a shoulder trauma, but while Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman had success with 204 yards and two touchdowns in that competition, they considered just four targets and succeeded only 18 yards with cornerback Marlon Humphrey in coverage against them. Even the Ravens likely can’t stop Mahomes, but expect him to pick on the relative weakness of their security rather than force-feed Hill with an nobility region on him.

Russell Gage has a top-2 0 23.9% target share through 2 weeks, and as bad as the Falcons defense is playing, he was able to likely thrive in fantasy as the team’s third receiver this season. I only don’t affection his odds this week. The Bears have one of the most wonderful overall protections in football — they’re sixth in both DVOA and DAVE so far this season — and they are particularly effective against slit receivers. They trimmed the position’s completion percentage by 33%, yards per target by 41%, and touchdowns per target by 85%, all top-two in football.

Tight Ends

Best Week 3 Matchups – Tight Ends

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot M.Gesicki MIA 0 JAX Rk 7 9 9 6

Pts

-0. 2 0.0 +0.9 +0.7 J.Cook NO 1 GB Rk 14 13 13 14

Pts

+0.3 0.0 +0.3 +0.6 T.Hockenson DET 0 ARI Rk 13 13 13 10

Pts

0.0 0.0 +0.5 +0.5 M.Andrews BAL 1 KC Rk 5 5 5 5

Pts

+0.1 0.0 +0.2 +0.3 L.Thomas WAS 0 CLE Rk 19 19 19 17

Pts

0.0 -0.2 +0.4 +0.2

Ryan Fitzpatrick had historically relied heavily on wide receivers over tight ceases, but Mike Gesicki’s top-five 21.1% target share through two weeks gives me confidence he can maintain his top-1 0 true-talent ranking. Meanwhile, that confidence comes just in time for a Jaguars matchup. They are a top-four booster of period percentage, yards per target, and touchdowns per target for the position.

I routinely hit that container about the Cardinals as well. And while George Kittle( because of an injury) and Logan Thomas( because Washington) couldn’t capitalize on the plus matchup in Weeks 1 or 2, I expect the third week to be the appeal for Lions tight objective T.J. Hockenson. His 12.7% target share so far this season doesn’t scream upper-tier TE2, but with a number of elite tight goals facing difficult road tests the coming week, Hockenson fractures my top 10 at the position.

Speaking of Washington, Logan Thomas may have a forgettable total of 63 yards through two weeks, but his 27.0% target share is second at its own position behind only Darren Waller( 38.7% ). He is a traditional-league and DFS option in the team’s better matchups, and Washington should have one of those in Cleveland this week. The Browns are neutral for both tight goal completion percentage and gardens per target, but they boost their touchdowns by 79% per target, second-most in football.

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Tight Ends

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot J.Smith TEN 0 MIN Rk 15 15 15 15

Pts

0.0 0.0 -0. 5 -0.5 D.Schultz DAL 0 SEA Rk 16 16 16 16

Pts

-0. 2 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 D.Waller LV 0 NE Rk 2 3 2 2

Pts

-0. 3 +0.1 -0. 2 -0.4 E.Engram NYG 1 SF Rk 8 8 7 12

Pts

+0.1 0.0 -0. 5 -0.4 G.Kittle SF 0 NYG Rk 3 2 2 4

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 3 -0.4

Jonnu Smith merely valued a duo of touchdowns against the Jaguars in Week 2, and Mo Alie-Cox shredded the Vikings for 111 yards in what was effectively his first busines start. Still, the Vikings are typically a scary opposing for tighten extremities. They led football allowing a -4 6.4% DVOA to tighten concludes with 2019, and Alie-Cox’s success last week seemed mainly driven by miscommunication rather than unskilled coverage from a linebacker corps that remains talented even with Anthony Barr disabled. Smith’s projected loss of half a PPR point isn’t gargantuan like those of some of the most matchup-affected receivers, but it still leaves him 15 th at the position this week. You should probably avoid him in shallow and daily leagues.

The same is true for the Cowboys’ brand-new No. 1 close-fisted demise Dalton Schultz. He exceled with nine catches, 88 yards, and a value in his first start since 2018, but his capacity was aided by game script, and the Falcons boost close-fisted dissolve ending charge and touchdowns per target such as they do for pretty much every rank. In compare, the Seahawks chipped close-fisted result touchdown pace by 69%, the second-most in football.

Kickers

Best Week 3 Matchups – Kickers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot Y.Koo ATL 1 CHI Rk 3 4 4 2

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.3 R.Blankenship IND 1 NYJ Rk 22 14 14 13

Pts

+0.3 0.0 0.0 +0.3 M.Badgley LAC 1 Gondola Rk 28 18 19 17

Pts

+0.3 0.0 0.0 +0.3 Z.Gonzalez ARI 1 DET Rk 10 7 7 6

Pts

+0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.3

The Bears may be a difficult opponent for the Falcons to tally 30 on, but a strong red zone defense doesn’t hurt Younghoe Koo’s fantasy potentials the same way it does Matt Ryan and corporation. The Bears boost short field goal struggles by 16%, third-most in football. That plus the dwelling dome movements Koo to second at kicker this week. And Zane Gonzalez has a nearly identical jump with his dome in Arizona and a Lions crew that improves short attempts by 18%.

The brand-new kicker to highlight is Rodrigo Blankenship. He probably deserves fantasy consideration simply on the strength of his mention and his sweet goggles, but he also makes top-tier K2 status in Week 3 with a dwelling matchup against the Jets.

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Kickers

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot D.Carlson LV 0 NE Rk 25 28 28 32

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 7 -0.8 S.Sloman LAR 0 BUF Rk 17 18 25 27

Pts

-0. 1 -0.2 -0. 1 -0.4 D.Bailey MIN 1 TEN Rk 12 10 9 17

Pts

+0.3 0.0 -0. 6 -0.3 G.Zuerlein DAL 0 SEA Rk 6 7 11 8

Pts

-0. 1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.2

With true-talent rankings between 12 and 25, Dan Bailey, Sam Sloman, and Daniel Carlson may not be lineup staples for your shallow fantasy squads. As such, I reached a bit up the bad matchup ranks to gather Greg Zuerlein, a ordinary top-six kicker who fails to eighth the coming week. That isn’t about the Seahawks matchup. Koo and Nick Folk have attempted two kickings apiece against Seattle in 2 weeks, and the Seahawks generally boost long assaults by 16%, second-most in football. It’s about playing on the road. When he’s at home, Zuerlein can enjoy the home-dome boost of 2% to short-lived field goal attempts and 8% to long field goal struggles. But on the road outdoors, long attempts are cut by 5 %.

Defenses

Best Week 3 Matchups – Defenses

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot Steelers DST PIT 1 HOU Rk 9 5 9 2

Pts

+0.3 -0.1 +1.5 +1.7 Patriots DST NE 1 LV Rk 16 15 15 9

Pts

+0.1 -0.1 +0.9 +0.9 Browns DST CLE 1 WAS Rk 9 8 5 5

Pts

+0.1 +0.2 +0.3 +0.6 Bucs DST TB 0 DEN Rk 12 12 12 9

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 +0.5 +0.4

The Steelers have certainly lived up to their defensive promises through two sports against the Whale and Broncos. The Texans are a different kind of offense, but dallying them at home in Pittsburgh should neutralize some of Deshaun Watson’s explosiveness. The Steelers are my No. 2 protection the coming week. The Patriots can’t say the same for their have begun to 2020 after allowing five total touchdowns to Russell Wilson in Week 2. The four they allowed to wide receivers are similar total they allowed to the position in all of 2019. Wilson may only be that good now, but while we wait to see, the Patriots fall to ninth at the position this week, even with a relatively good residence matchup against the dink-and-dunkier Raiders.

Defensive streamers have a pair of respectable alternatives in the Browns at home against Washington and the Bucs on the road in Denver. Washington is a top-five booster of both attacks for loss and bags, and Dwayne Haskins easily guided all frequent starters in 2019 with a 12.5% sack rate. Myles Garrett should have a field day. The Broncos are generally more competent, but things are looking grim for the team after “losing ones” ordinary quarterback starter Lock and No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton. The Bucs’ defense was sixth in 2019 and is fourth so far in 2020 in DVOA. They tend to be underrated because of how often Jameis Winston — and Tom Brady in Week 1 — leaved resisting offenses short plains with interceptions.

Worst Week 3 Matchups – Defenses

Player Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Def Tot Packers DST GB 0 NO Rk 26 28 28 32

Pts

-0. 4 0.0 -0. 7 -1.1 Saints DST NO 1 GB Rk 26 27 27 28

Pts

-0. 1 0.0 -0. 5 -0.6 Cardinals DST ARI 1 DET Rk 20 21 21 19

Pts

-0. 3 0.0 -0. 1 -0.4 Bills DST BUF 1 LAR Rk 7 7 3 12

Pts

+0.1 +0.3 -0. 6 -0.2

Most of your favorite defenses eschew horrible Week 3 matchups since the ones with the worst opponents such as the Saints( in the Packers ), the Cardinals( in the Lions ), and Bills( in the Rams) at least get to play them at home. As such, I consider the Packers as the major protection to avoid this week. The Raiders may have fixed the Saints offense look dull, but as already mentioned, Brees and his offense thrives at home in the Superdome. He likely won’t fall victim to the Packers’ top-five boosting of interceptions, and the Saints offensive line helps Brees chipped bags per pass endeavor by 44%, third-most in football.

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